STABILITY ANALYSIS OF A FRACTIONAL ORDER CORONAVIRUS(COVID-19) EPIDEMIC MODEL

STABILITY ANALYSIS OF A FRACTIONAL ORDER CORONAVIRUS(COVID-19) EPIDEMIC MODEL

M. Khuddush, K. R. Prasad

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Abstract

In this paper a six-compartmental coronavirus(COVID-19) epidemic model is developed. We have divided the total population into  ve classes, namely susceptible, exposed, infected, treatment, recovered and the concentration of the coronavirus in the environment reservoir class. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated using the next-generation matrix method. The stability analysis of the model shows that the system is locally asymptotically stable at the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) E0 when R0 < 1: When R0 > 1; an endemic equilibrium E   exists and the system becomes locally asymptotically stable at E   under some conditions.

Keywords

Coronavirus(COVID-19); Caputo fractional derivative; reproduction number, next-generation matrix.